Gambling lavish lifestyle. Can you make a living from it?
Have you ever wondered whether you can make a living out of gambling? This can be gambling in a land-based casino or online casino. The simple answer is yes, we know of professional poker and roulette players. When it comes to sports betting, you can transform this into a form of livelihood. This post will discuss the expected value of sports betting and how to make a living out of it.
What is expected value of sports betting?
Sports betting expected value is the measure of the probability gap between a bettor’s expectations and the bookmaker’s expectations. The bookie has expectations assigned to the odds they offer, whether in money lines, point spreads, or total odds.
On platforms like Lionbonuses, you will learn of the best betting sites and guides to professional betting. We recommend that you learn the Poisson distribution method, which most professional bettors use. Moreover, they also use the compound value betting strategy and 52-53% winning rate with average odds of 1.9.
Why is the expected value significant in sports betting?
To determine the bets you make, use the expected value. This will earn you more advantage compared to other bettors who cannot calculate the expected value. If you are the kind that will scramble through the odds given without determining the expected value, then you will not make an informed decision. This research is vital as it considers the lines, extension, and probabilities employed in a game by the oddsmakers.
Always determine the expected value to know whether the bet is undervalued or overvalued. Professional bettors always conduct the research a week before the game. The value bets will be available for a short time, and when the market catches up, the oddsmakers change the lines.
As a professional bettor, it will be vital for you to check whether you have a positive expected value. A casual bettor will not look into this and will always hope for a win they did not calculate for. This is similar to a roulette player who always hopes the ball lands on the red or black spots depending on their bet.
Calculating the Expected Value
On some platforms, you will notice that they have an expected value calculator. Learning how to do it before using the calculator would be vital. Below is a tabulation of how the calculations are done.
The formula:
(Winning implied probability percentage * profit if the bet is won) – (Losing implied probability percentage * the stake) = Expected Value.
Consider only positive numbers after using this formula. The bet you are about to place has a positive expected value which means that if you were to be on this event to infinity, you would be in the black.
Let’s look at an example now!
When Liverpool has an odd of 1.263 playing with Southampton (13.5) and a draw odd of 6.5 with a $10 stake, on Southampton to win, you will have a potential win of $125. The probability of this event happening is 0.074 or 7.4%.
In this case, the potential loss will be $10. Using our formula, we will have a negative expected value.
(0.074 x $125) – (0.946 x $10) = -$0.20
The results in this tabulation show that you will possibly lose $0.20 for every $10 bet.
When you get a negative EV, it does not mean that you will lose money but being subjective will go a long way in getting the lavish lifestyle from online betting.
In the example above, if you used the Poisson distribution to determine the probability of Southampton winning, you would get a probability of 10%. With this, you will get a positive EV. We recommend using Poisson distribution in your calculations as it has brought us great fortunes.
More tips to use when you get the positive expected value
The fun in betting is usually attained when you do your research and win a bet. This should be one of the things that will get you to be a professional bettor. Don’t worry about the losses; all you need is a 50% win rate, and you will be among the top-tier bettors in the industry.
After getting a positive EV, there are other factors that you should look at. Below are some tips you will apply to your betting endeavour.
Don’t bet on other bettors’ favourites.
Bet on a sober mind; don’t be emotionally attached to your bets. Other people’s favourites should not be your favourite. Use your strategy and Poisson distribution to determine whether the bet will have a positive or negative EV.
Not making a bet is a good move.
As a bettor, you must consider the underdogs’ values and favourites. It can be challenging to make a distinction between the lines made by the bookie. This will need a lot of investment in the time spent researching and determining the best move. If you cannot make a good decision, it’s okay not to make a bet.
Make your bets early.
A good bettor will constantly pounce on the bets early. This is when the bookies are vulnerable and have not adjusted their lines. You must conduct your research even when making an early bet.
Conclusion
It is possible to make a living from gambling. You can be a professional bettor, but you need a strategy that you always stick to. Having a strategy and being patient will earn you more money than you will ever think of. Our recommended strategy will earn you great success!
