What is Vladimir Putin’s plan in Ukraine?

In recent weeks, Russia has Advanced more than 100,000 troops to its border with Ukraine. The Ukrainian government, fearing an attack, appealed to Europe and the United States for help. Kremlin spokesman said that Russia pose no threat To anyone, but the 2014 invasion of Crimea and its continued material support for separatist rebels in Ukraine’s Donbas region (along with similar denials of involvement) has prompted officials to Europe and America must be vigilant.

EU head Ursula von der Leyen insisted the EU and the US “fully support Ukraine’s territorial integrity” and together they openly discussed retaliatory steps, mainly sanctions, if Russia cross the border. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that a Russian invasion would be a “serious mistake,” and the US is said to have shipped about 80 tons of ammunition to Ukraine to support Kyiv.

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What is Vladimir Putin going to do? In recent years, the Russian President has fully embraced anti-Western, Cold War-style words and actions, at least in part as a means of boosting his declining approval ratings. grandfather. A poll published in October by Levada Center of Moscow found that Russians’ confidence in Putin has dropped to 53%, the lowest level since 2012. History shows that going to war with Ukraine can help with that.

According to Putin, the Russian military is responding to Western provocations in the Black Sea, where NATO recently held unannounced military exercises. In your opinion, why does Russia ignore the hostile presence of American and European warships and warplanes near Russia’s shores? It is also possible that Putin is signaling to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky does not attempt to increase its own plunge rating by becoming more militarily aggressive against the Donbas rebels in the coming months.

Despite all this, a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains unlikely. Seven years ago, when Putin seized Crimea in retaliation for a coup in Kyiv that forced Ukraine’s pro-Russian President to flee the country, his troops were entering the only part of Ukraine where the majority of citizens are ethnic minorities. Russia. That ensures a friendly reception. At the time, the Kremlin also had an element of surprise. Subsequent Russian support for Ukraine’s Donbas separatists also took place in mostly friendly territory. Today, Putin’s aggressive actions have permanently poisoned the attitudes of tens of millions of Ukrainians towards Moscow.

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That is why any Russian incursion into new Ukrainian territory will prove extremely costly for Russia. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the ground and NATO will not join the fray, but the heavy Russian casualties and financial costs of holding hostile territory are politically too expensive for a President. Russia is not as famous as it used to be. In fact, another Levada poll found that although Russians tend to blame the West for trouble in Ukraine, they don’t think an “all-out war” with Ukraine would be favor Putin’s domestic position. All that said, Ukraine cannot ignore the sudden expansion of Russian military presence along its borders, and American and European officials know that any statement of support is less powerful. All of them could make hostile Russian action more likely. The risk of war remains low, but no one will relax until those Russian soldiers back down. What is Vladimir Putin’s plan in Ukraine?

Aila Slisco

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