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Vladimir Putin could be ousted by his cronies in a ‘palace coup’ within TWO YEARS, Intel analysts say

According to a new intelligence analysis, Vladimir Putin will be overthrown within two years in a “palace coup” orchestrated by his inner circle.

The war in Ukraine is dragging on and the sanctions are even biting Russian tyrant Cronies will see his “toxic” behavior as a threat to their wealth and power, so it’s “very likely” they’ll depose him, the experts say.

Vladimir Putin will

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Vladimir Putin will be “probably or very likely” deposed within two yearsCredit: AP
Sergei Chemezov, Nikolai Patrushev and Igor Sechin are among Putin's closest circle

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Sergei Chemezov, Nikolai Patrushev and Igor Sechin are among Putin’s closest circle

The assessment comes from intelligence analysts Dragonfly, who correctly predicted Russia would occur Ukraine.

Their assessment is that “it is likely to very likely that President Putin will not be in the position he is in for the next two years” if the West tightens sanctions.

But instead of the mass uprising like the one that deposed Libyan dictator Colonel Gaddafi – which he supposedly fears – Putin’s end will come from within.

At a briefing, Dragonfly said that given the security surrounding Putin, it was unlikely that such an uprising or coup by spies and soldiers would be successful.

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Instead, Putin’s fate rests in the hands of his inner circle of six cronies, made up of military, security guards and businessmen – “stocky men in ill-fitting suits”.

They’re the only people Putin trusts, and they’ve remained steadfastly loyal to him—until now.

They are Sergei Naryshkin, head of the foreign intelligence service, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Alexander Bortnikov, former head of the FSB’s internal security service, and Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian Security Council.


It comes as…


Also in the group are Sergei Chemezov, head of the state-owned armaments company Rostec, and oligarch Igor Sechin, head of the energy giant Rosneft.

Sechin’s £458million yacht and a £140million ship owned by Chemezov have been seized in Spain after being sanctioned by the EU over ties to Putin.

These men are known in Russia as “siloviki”, which translates to “men of power”.

All have experience of working with Putin in the Soviet-era KGB security service or in the St. Petersburg city government.

They were motivated by “money and the ability to spend it and believing in this theory that the Russian empire is coming back and President Putin is pushing it,” says Dranonfly.

“The challenge is what happens when Putin’s position no longer guarantees the safety and financial security of those around him.

“Part of it is clearly underway – the sanctions are unprecedented.”

According to the intelligence analysts, there is a “contract” between this inner circle plus other oligarchs and Putin.

“You can have your money and spend it in St Tropez and you can buy your huge megayachts and send your children to British public schools and Western educational institutions.

“The deal on my side is that you never question my position, don’t get involved in politics and if necessary I can ask you for a favour.”

Alexander Bortnikov, Sergei Naryshkin and Sergei Shoigu are also Putin confidants

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Alexander Bortnikov, Sergei Naryshkin and Sergei Shoigu are also Putin confidants

But the “really dangerous scenario” is that Putin’s actions make him “really toxic as a leader, thereby really jeopardizing the safety and financial security of those individuals.”

“The danger scenario for Putin now is … there are very few alternative contracts that he can offer the oligarchs and these individuals.

“It is very unlikely that a counter-offer, how about sending your children to elite educational institutions in Beijing and vacationing on the Black Sea, would be as attractive as St Tropez or Oxford.”

The concern for Putin is that as war drags on in the West, sanctions will be tightened to the point where Russia is truly in a financial crisis

That will put additional pressure on the president to “keep on the side his key advisers and those who need cash to stay on board.”

“At this stage, we need to start thinking about a palace coup, efforts to overthrow President Putin.”

TOXIC PUTIN

That would include “elements within President Putin’s Kremlin or the security services or, crucially, one of the six individuals who decide he has become too toxic for their position as a leader and consequently poses a threat to them.”

But there will be no soldiers in riot gear on TV “explaining that the President has fallen ill and so on”.

“What we would rather see is a group of stocky men in ill-fitting suits walking into the Kremlin.

“President Putin is then declared either ill or has to resign for other reasons – family reasons and so on.

“And what we are effectively accomplishing is that President Putin is removed and replaced with someone ripped from the same relative obscurity that he has occupied.”

Whether the new leader’s attitude toward the West will change is the “million-dollar question.”

But at this stage the reasoning is that “it would be far more of a ‘rebrand than a reset'”.

On an optimistic note, Dragonfly says, “Any new cabal in charge of the Kremlin…would start with an end to the conflict in Ukraine, or at least return to good faith negotiations.”

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https://www.the-sun.com/news/5036730/vladimir-putin-ousted-two-years/ Vladimir Putin could be ousted by his cronies in a ‘palace coup’ within TWO YEARS, Intel analysts say

DevanCole

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