The dream of an ’emerging Democratic majority’ is dead?

A new one The Wall Street Journal poll Shows Hispanic voters are split evenly between the two parties on the joint parliamentary ballot for next year’s midterm elections. Perhaps even more shockingly, President Biden would beat former President Donald Trump by just one point among these voters if the 2024 presidential election were held today.

It’s just a poll, but it’s part of a broader trend that shows Hispanics are starting to vote more like non-Hispanic whites and non-white conservatives dropping out. votes like white conservatives in general. As is the case with white voters, men are more Republican, women more Democratic; is different survey similarly found that religion and age were also important for partisanship.

This breaks much of the conventional wisdom of the Trump era. Many analysts hope or fear his hard-line immigration views, often presented in a highly provocative fashion, will have a similar effect on Hispanic voters whose nominations are not. nominee Barry Goldwater – one of six Republican senators to vote against the Civil Rights Act of 1964 – did with Black voters. Until the end of 1960, the GOP presidential candidates received one-third of the Black vote; after Goldwater, they never made it past the teen years, even in the elections they won in 49 states.

Instead, the opposite is happening: Republicans are holding steady and actually seem to be infiltrating non-white voters, even as white libertarians experience “Great awakening“on the race. Yes some evidence that the two phenomena are connected. Even before Trump, there was considerable optimism among libertarians that a Rainbow Coalition of minorities would bring emerging Democratic majority. Now, maybe not.

The latest poll also has implications for some conventional wisdom. The view that Hispanics are politically different from previous immigrant groups and that demographic change necessarily destroys the GOP (the darkest of which is “alternative theory“) is being challenged, even if the immigration policy of a multiracial working-class party may look very different from that of the Chamber of Commerce.

Republicans do best when immigrants integrate, make economic progress, vote their values ​​and reject repressive political systems when did they come, against their import. As it happens, these are also best for America. The dream of an ’emerging Democratic majority’ is dead?


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