AN ALTERNATIVE Premier League table based on expected goals has been revealed – and it’s not good news for Chelsea or Arsenal.
The English top flight are back after Christmas with a bang, with all 20 sides in action between Boxing Day and December 28.
Fans have been starved of football in the world’s most-watched league since November due to the World Cup break.
But there will be a big return after Christmas when rivalries and fights resume from autumn.
A new table based on the expected goals shows how different the previous season could have been.
The statistic, also known as XG, is becoming increasingly popular in football and uses various metrics to accurately indicate how many goals a team should have scored and conceded.
XG can provide insight into which teams may be over- or underperforming based on degree and luck.
The most dramatic revelation from the table is how much the expected goals would have changed Chelsea’s fortunes.
The Blues are in fact having a difficult season with Graham Potter’s side dropping to eighth in the table before the break.
But based on XG, Chelsea should actually be as low as FIFTEENTH and down six points.
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The numbers suggest the Londoners have been lucky with results this season and the numbers also show that they should have conceded more goals than they scored.
In reality, Chelsea have a zero goal difference with 17 goals scored and conceded.
Arsenal fans will also want to look away from the XG table.
While their relegation isn’t quite as severe, the Gunners are losing top spot to Manchester City on expected goals.
They go into Boxing Day with a five-point lead over City, but XG hints they put in an above-average performance in front of goal.
In the alternative table, they lose four points, Manchester City gain one point and Pep Guardiola’s side are ahead on XG goal difference alone.
Manchester United is also notable as the Red Devils drop FIVE places in the XG table.
Based on the new metrics, Erik ten Hag’s side are actually four points better off than they should be based on the quality of the scoring chances they created and conceded.
Perhaps the most alarming relegation is Bournemouth supporting the alternative table.
In real life, the Cherries are an impressive 14th with 10 points, but XG states they should really be LAST in the league with just six points.
Everton are also on the XG relegation zone with six points fewer than in real life.
Frank Lampard is trying to get the Merseyside club back on track but data suggests they could have a difficult second half of the season.
There is good news for Leeds and West Ham, both of whom are shooting up the XG table, suggesting that both clubs’ performances have not matched their results.
Meanwhile, Newcastle, Tottenham, Liverpool, Brentford and Leicester are pretty much in the same spot as real life.
The Premier League resumes after Christmas with several intriguing storylines to complete.
Arsenal are looking to win their first Premier League title since 2005 but face stiff competition from Man City, led by goalscorer Erling Haaland.
Newcastle are targeting an unexpected place in the top four but may have to fend off a recovering charge from Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool.
And Julen Lopetegui and Nathan Jones are both drafted by Wolves and are fighting in Southampton.
The pair are hoping to escape a relegation battle that could potentially span half the division.
https://www.the-sun.com/sport/6985432/expected-goals-chelsea-arsenal-alternative-table/ The alternative Premier League table shows where each team REALLY should be based on xG, with Chelsea 15th & Arsenal not at the top