PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – What could be the biggest snow event of the year is headed our way.
While the system has been down for two days and there is plenty of time for the information to change, current data suggests that Pittsburgh will most likely get at least 5 inches of snow.
Lots of forecasts about a major weather event. KDKA meteorologist Ron Smiley is analyzing and answering all your questions.
Ron Smiley’s forecast
Let’s talk about snow. This is meant to be a place right here where you can go to find out everything you want to know about the possibility of heavy snow coming Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Let’s start with the official snow map with projected snowfall from the KDKA weather team.
There will be changes. Always have, and we’re still two days from the start of the event. But here’s what the latest data tells us.
This system is not fully formed yet, so the best tool we have for forecasting this event is the data that has gotten a lot more right over the past decades than wrong. So from there, let’s go into more detail.
What is happening?
The average low is forecast to track just southeast of our region Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The low will spill into the United States from Canada, moving south-southeast into Minnesota.
The track will take the system south to Arkansas, where it is expected to make a difficult left turn to the east. This track will take it through Kentucky and Tennessee before it begins to move northeast along and slightly east of the Appalachian Mountains. We’ll be in what’s called the fourth quadrant of a jet trail. During winter, this is the area that usually gets the most total snowfall in this type of setup. We expect to see heavy snow totals.
When will we see any clocks, warnings or advice?
Usually for winter weather, clocks and advisories are released 24 to 48 hours. Warning and advice often watch replacement, if warranted, within 24 hours or less.
We’ve got winter storm watches posted Sunday through Monday. They were released early Friday morning. Well, this is early and it’s a combination of a few things.
First of all, confidence in this fact is very high. The National Weather Service – the agency that issues watches, warnings and advisories – relies heavily on a computer program called the National Blend of Models (NBM). This program combines 46 models together, reduces the inherent biases that come from all models, and then outputs what it considers the best solution.
Of the 46 samples used by the NBM, only 3 showed that Pittsburgh did not see more than 5 inches of snow.
Second, the timing of this system is on weekends. People are more likely to notice an alert on Friday than on Saturday.
Ultimately, this is a massive system that will affect several people’s lives. The best alerts come early and often. Looking at the history of our area, this type of storm is likely to happen about every two years if we see 6 inches of snow and about once a year if it’s 5. This is most likely the biggest snow event. in year.
When can I have snow?
There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect from 1:00 p.m. Sunday until 1:00 p.m. Monday. I had the heaviest snow in place after sunset and continued until sunrise on Monday morning. I actually saw Western Pennsylvania mostly snow-free until at least 4 p.m. Sunday with snow arriving in Pittsburgh around 6 p.m.
The heaviest snow will move between 8pm and around 5am on Monday. This means that anyone traveling home from the Steelers playoffs will find the roads covered in snow. If you are planning on numbering homes, be prepared for high prices.
Monday is a federal holiday, but for commuters, the roads can still be covered with snow. I expect this will definitely happen on many neighborhood roads and some side roads.
That’s it, what else do we see that’s smaller than 5 inches?
I wish I could guarantee 5 inches of snow. I can not. All I can do at this point is to let you know that there is a high chance of heavy snow Sunday through Monday. All of our best tools are geared towards that, and I wouldn’t be able to do my job if I hadn’t communicated that to you.
At this point, the track is already quite rocky. It won’t change much. Intensity may vary slightly and that could certainly change our forecast when snow is expected.
Most likely change will come once we start getting high resolution model data in short range. This will make it clearer if and how far north any warm air can move into this system. This will cause rain instead of snow.
For now, I’m leaving our total snow map unchanged from yesterday. Honestly, these numbers are on the low end of what the model data is showing. If I change anything now all the numbers will go up…. #AfternoonUpdate #KDKAwx pic.twitter.com/BIO2zpE66g
– Ron Smiley (@RonSmileyWx) January 14, 2022
Anyone remember the bankruptcy forecast of January 2019? I do. In fact, if you Google that bankruptcy event, you’ll see that one of the first articles is my blog post about bankruptcy opportunities in the upcoming forecast. I posted that the day before the bankruptcy forecast happened. I also miss it for some other crazy reason but you don’t need to know those details.
A warm average layer brought rain instead of snow that day for Western Pennsylvania turning the 4- to 6-inch forecast into rain and rain for the day in Allegheny County. At this point, all signs indicate that this is an all or mostly snow event depending on your location.
https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2022/01/14/pittsburgh-weather-everything-you-need-to-know-about-sundays-snow/ Everything you need to know about Sunday’s winter storm system – CBS Pittsburgh